NFL Playoff Betting: A Comprehensive Guide

In case you weren’t aware, NFL teams spent the month of December playing their final games of the regular season – some in the hopes of making the playoffs.

As we’ll get into, the NFL playoffs are the knockout stages of the league, taking place throughout January and culminating in the main event, the Super Bowl. While it may seem short, the journey comes off the back of 17 hard-fought matchups and, in spite of their tiredness, this is the moment when the remaining teams really dig in. The result? Explosive and exciting moments provided by athletes at the top of their game.

If you’re keen to get involved but want some more information on doing so first, read on.

NFL playoff structure: the road to the Super Bowl

The NFL playoffs may seem a bit confusing at first, but once you have a handle on how the seeding works, the knockout format becomes a lot easier to navigate.

Following the conclusion of the regular season – which consists of 17 games per team – 14 teams make their way to the playoffs, referred to, as a whole, as the ‘postseason’.

Wild Card round – 10-13 Jan

The Wild Card games took place last weekend, and as you’ll see, 12 teams went head-to-head, with the lowest-seeded teams of the bunch competing against each other.

For this round, the top-seeded team from each conference – the NFC and the AFC – are gifted some rest in the form of a bye week. When they do play in the next round, it’ll be at home, giving them the coveted home-field advantage.

In case you missed them, here’s how this season’s Wild Card games went:

• Carolina Panthers 31 – 34 Los Angeles Rams

• Chicago Bears 31 – 27 Green Bay Packers

• Jacksonville Jaguars 24 – 27 Buffalo Bills

• Philadelphia Eagles 19 – 23 San Francisco 49ers

• New England Patriots 16 – 3 San Diego Chargers

• Pittsburgh Steelers 6 – 30 Houston Texans

Divisional round – 17-18 Jan

With four teams now eliminated, attention immediately turns to the Divisional round, which consists of four games where the top seeds get added to the mix. As with any quarter-final round in an elimination format, expect a jump in intensity for these games.

Here are the Divisional Round fixtures for this weekend:

• Denver Broncos vs. Buffalo Bills

• Seattle Seahawks vs. San Francisco 49ers

• New England Patriots vs. Houston Texans

• Chicago Bears vs. Los Angeles Rams

Conference championships – 25 Jan

Once the victors of the Divisional round games have been decided, they quickly progress to the Conference championship games. Here, two AFC teams battle it out to lay claim to the conference and Lamar Hunt trophy; two NFC teams do the same for the George Halas trophy.

The main goal for these teams, though, is a place in the Super Bowl. With legacies on the line, you can anticipate hard-fought action all across the field in these games.

Super Bowl LX – 8 Feb

The hugely anticipated final of the NFL season is one of the most popular events for bettors and American football enthusiasts alike. In this game – that often lasts over three hours and features a half-time show with its own betting markets – the new AFC and NFC champions go head-to-head for the ultimate achievement.

This year, the Super Bowl game takes place at the San Francisco 49ers’ Levi’s Stadium and kicks off at 11:30 p.m. GMT – late, but worth watching if you’re keen to see athletes at the top of their game.

Popular NFL playoffs betting markets

We’ve already covered how the most popular NFL bets work in our Moneyline vs. Spread article, so if you’re keen to learn more about each market’s intricacies, why not check it out?

If, however, you’d prefer to get started right away, here’s a quick overview of major markets during the playoffs. Bets reigning supreme here are by and large the same as those you’ll find in the regular NFL season:

• Moneyline - or match result - where you pick the team you think will win

• Point spread - or handicap - where favourites need to win by a certain number of points, or underdogs lose by no more than a certain number or win outright

• Totals - or the over/under - where you decide whether the final score will exceed or fall short of a certain number

Outright markets – commonly known as futures in the US – are solid options at this stage of the season, too. With player and team options both available, you can bet on who you think will win the Super Bowl as well as who you think will take home the MVP award.

This late on in the season, you’ll likely have a clear idea of who you think the winners will be, but so does everyone else. That’s why odds for a certain outright market at this stage will be shorter than they were earlier on. Depending on how close an eye you’ve been keeping on a team or player, though, you still might be able to spot value for a particular market.

Beyond these options, in-play markets can be another avenue worth exploring. In NFL games, you can bet on outcomes within certain game periods – whether that’s a particular quarter or half – like you might on a football match.

How player props look in the playoffs

Player prop bets, which are wagers on the performances of an individual rather than the team, dominate American football markets. And for good reason: there’s a huge range to choose from, they add another perspective to the game and, thanks to the sheer volume of player statistics readily available, fans may find more value in a certain set of prop bets than in other, more general game markets. They’re also available pre-game and in-play.

When it comes to NFL player prop bets, you can expect to find markets such as:

• Player passing yards & number of touchdowns

• Player rushing yards

• Player receiving yards & number of receptions

• First & last touchdown scorer

How betting on playoff games differs from regular season games

Everything we’ve covered so far looks at what’s on offer during this period of play, and while vast and interesting, the markets here don’t exist in a vacuum. Teams really lock in during the postseason gauntlet, and the odds attached to their markets can change to reflect that.

If you watch NFL regularly, you’ll have probably seen these shifts for yourself at some point. But if you’re quite new to the sport, here’s a quick rundown on how the teams can vary their approach when their legacies are on the line.

• Coaches can either be more conservative or aggressive than usual in their approach

• Starting players feature throughout the period, with a willingness to play through injuries

• With defences battening up the hatches, related markets such as totals reflect the fine margins in scoring

• A team’s risk appetite increases, meaning 4^th down attempts and other daring plays become more common

To sum up, when it’s a ‘win or go home’ mentality, these coaches and players are more than willing to put it all on the line if it means progressing to the next round or, more significantly, win the Super Bowl.

And betting markets will adjust in line with this, with odds on favourites often shortening (meaning the outcome is becoming more likely to happen) and in-play options becoming more volatile in light of elimination chances.

Tips for betting on NFL playoff games

By now, it should be abundantly clear just how dramatic these games can be, and we’d seriously recommend trying to catch some of the earlier matchups regardless of whether or not you plan to bet on them.

If you are, however, here are some things we think are worthwhile keeping in mind:

• The weather – inclement conditions can affect totals markets for games played in outdoor stadiums, so monitor forecasts in the run-up to kickoff

• Recent head-to-head records and playoff performance history of the two teams

• Injuries – we mentioned earlier that some players are willing to compete while hurt, but some types of injuries cannot be ignored, so keep tabs on team injury lists

• Stick to your budget – there are four weeks’ worth of games and plenty of chances to get involved, so there’s no need to rush. Keep emotions in check and make sure all your bets are considered

Next steps

As the pinnacle of the NFL season, the playoff games showcase the league’s highest quality of American football and, as a result, see a large amount of betting activity, especially for the Super Bowl game.

There’s an undeniable buzz across fandoms at this point of the season, and if you’re feeling it yourself, it’s worthwhile checking out our NFL betting guide to make sure you’re fully clued-in on the game’s structure and available markets before diving in.

For even more content of this ilk, check out the Bally Bet Sports & Casino blog, which houses a range of helpful articles about sports betting and online casino games.

All offers mentioned correct at the time of writing but may be subject to change.