Outright Betting: How Does It Work in the NFL?

If you follow football betting in the UK, you’ll already understand the concept behind outright betting.

You back a team to win the Premier League before the season starts or pick a player to finish as top scorer. Or something else entirely. The condition is that the bet settles once its tournament as a whole wraps up, rather than a single match or event.

In the US, season-long bets of this kind are called futures. Both terms refer to the same thing.

This guide covers what NFL outrights are, how they work, what markets are available here and what's worth knowing before you place one.

What is an NFL outright bet?

An NFL outright bet is a wager on a specific outcome across the season: which team will win the Super Bowl, which player will be named MVP, which team will top a division. The bet is placed before or during the season and settled once the relevant outcome is confirmed, which may be weeks or months after the bet was placed.

The football equivalent would be backing Arsenal to win the Premier League in August, or tipping a striker to finish as the Golden Boot winner before a ball has been kicked. The market stays open throughout, with odds shifting after every week of results, and the bet is settled at whatever price was locked in when you placed it, not the current market price.

How NFL outrights work

You select your outcome, choose your stake and confirm the bet at the odds available at that moment. Those odds are locked in, so if the same selection shortens significantly after a strong week of results, your bet is still settled at the original price. If it drifts after an injury or a poor run, you're still on at the longer price you took.

The bet remains open and unsettled until the outcome is decided. A Super Bowl winner bet placed in September isn't settled until February. In the meantime, the market continues to trade around it, but your position is fixed from the moment you confirmed the bet.

A worked example

You place a £10 bet on a team to win the Super Bowl at 12/1 in Week 1 of the regular season.

Over the following months, that team performs well and their odds shorten to 5/2 by the time the playoffs begin. Your bet is still live at 12/1, which are the odds you took in Week 1. If they go on to win the Super Bowl, your return is £120 in winnings plus your £10 stake. The current market price is irrelevant to your settlement.

NFL outright markets at Bally Bet

Our full range of NFL outrights are available throughout the season. Here’s a look at some of the markets we have on offer:

The State of Super Bowl winner market is worth a brief explanation.

It's a bet on which US state the winning franchise is based in, not the state hosting the Super Bowl itself. Super Bowl LXI is at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, California, but a win for a team based in Texas, for example, would settle the state market as Texas regardless of the game's location.

Why the prices look different

NFL outright odds vary significantly from market to market, and from team to team within the same market. A few factors drive those differences.

Field size

The Super Bowl winner market has 32 possible outcomes. That’s 32 teams, each with a price. The longer the odds on any individual team, the less likely that outcome is considered to be.

And because there are so many teams, and so many possible outcomes, the eventual Super Bowl winner is considered a very tough call, especially early in the season. As with the Grand National in horse racing – which features 34 runners – the complexity of choosing the eventual tournament winner from such a large field of participants is reflected accordingly in the odds.

Available information

Early in the season, uncertainty is high. Teams that haven't played are priced on expectation: preseason performance, roster moves, coaching changes, injury news coming in.

As the season develops, results and performances replace expectation with evidence, and the market prices adjust accordingly. Odds that look long in September can shorten dramatically after a strong October and November.

Award markets

Individual award markets like MVP are heavily influenced by position. Quarterbacks win the NFL MVP far more often than any other position, which is reflected in how those markets are priced.

A strong-performing defensive lineman might be priced long on MVP not because their season has been poor but because the market historically skews toward quarterbacks for that award.

How outright prices move through the season

NFL outright markets are not static. They update after every week of results, every significant injury report and every major development, such as a trade, a coaching change, or an unexpected winning run.

A team that opens the season at 20/1 for the Super Bowl can be 7/2 by Week 10 if they've gone undefeated; a preseason favourite can drift to 14/1 after a series of losses and a starting quarterback injury.

This movement is one of the defining features of outright betting.

The price you see today is not the price that will be available in a later week, and it's unlikely to be the price available at the end of the regular season. The market reflects current information and current probability, both of which change throughout a 22-week season.

Your bet, once placed, is settled at the odds you took. The market continuing to move around it doesn't affect your position. That's the nature of outright betting in both directions; you can be sitting on a long price that the market has since moved significantly shorter, or on a price that has since drifted beyond what you took.

How NFL outrights are settled

Each market settles once the relevant outcome is officially confirmed.

Super Bowl winner and conference winner markets settle after the relevant game is played.

Division winner markets settle at the end of the regular season once the standings are confirmed.

Individual award markets - MVP, Offensive and Defensive Player of the Year, Rookie awards - settle at the NFL Honors ceremony, held the Thursday before the Super Bowl.

Check the specific terms at Bally Bet for how player outrights are handled in the event of a trade, team movement or name change.

Pros and cons

The case for outright betting

The longer odds (and potentially greater payout) attached to outright markets – when compared to a weekly match result bet - reflect the complexity of predicting a season-long outcome from a field with 32 teams.

For bettors who follow the NFL closely across the full season, outright markets offer a way to engage with something throughout, with a single bet that stays live from September through to February.

The variety of markets, from the Super Bowl itself to divisional winners and individual awards, also means there's a range of entry points and price levels to explore.

The case against

Outright bets tie up your stake for the duration of the relevant market, which is sometimes several months. A Super Bowl winner bet placed in September isn't settled until February regardless of how the season develops. The market may move significantly in that time, and there's no way to adjust your position once the bet is confirmed. An injury to a key player, an unexpected form collapse or a change in coaching staff can all affect the likelihood of your selection winning, and your bet remains open throughout.

Current NFL outright markets at Bally Bet

The current outright prices for the 2026/27 NFL season - including Super Bowl winner, conference champions, division winners and individual award markets - are available right now at Bally Bet. Odds reflect the current state of the season and update after each week's results.

View the latest NFL outright markets at Bally Bet here.

Our outright markets are live throughout the season and the current prices are a snapshot of where the market stands right now, not a fixed picture of the season ahead.

All betting is subject to chance. NFL outright markets are particularly long-term in nature; a lot can change across an 18-week regular season and a full playoff bracket. Set a budget before you place and use the spend limit tools in your Bally Bet account to stay in control.

NFL Outright Betting FAQs

When are NFL individual award markets settled?

Individual award markets are settled at the NFL Honors ceremony, which takes place the Thursday before the Super Bowl during Super Bowl week. The results are based on the official NFL voting process, not on statistical leaders or media polling.

What’s the difference between the Super Bowl winner and the conference winner markets?

The Super Bowl winner market covers all teams and settles when the Super Bowl is played in February. The conference winner markets each cover 16 teams and settle when the respective conference championship game is played.

If you're looking for more helpful NFL market explanation like this, check out the Bally Bet blog. It houses all of our latest guides and articles for major American sports as well as the more familiar ones, alongside practical online casino game advice and recommendations.

All offers mentioned correct at the time of writing but may be subject to change.