Grand National Trends: What the Data Tells Us

The Grand National is the most unpredictable race in the calendar. 34 runners, 30 jumps, more than four miles of Aintree turf. All that and a history full of shock results, improbable winners and market movers defying expectation.

But unpredictable doesn't necessarily mean unreadable. Beneath the chaos, patterns emerge. Age, weight, course experience, market position; the data points to a profile of horse that tends to win this race, and understanding it can help give you a clearer lens when the weights drop and the market begins to take shape.

This is what the trends tell us.

Age: the sweet spot

The Grand National has a clear age profile for its winners. Horses aged between eight and 10 have dominated the results over the past two decades, combining the physical maturity to handle the demands of the course with enough racing mileage to have developed the jumping technique Aintree requires.

Younger horses - seven-year-olds and below - rarely feature. The Grand National is simply too much, too soon. The course asks questions that take years of experience to answer. At the other end, horses aged 12 and above win the race occasionally, but the data doesn't favour them. The energy required to complete the course at a competitive pace tends to work against older horses, even those with significant Aintree experience.

When assessing the field, horses aged eight to 10 are where the trends point first.

Weight: carried with purpose

The Grand National is a handicap race, which means every runner carries a weight assigned by the British Horseracing Authority based on their ability, the goal being to level the field as much as possible. New to horse racing? Our handicap betting guide is a must-read if so.

This year’s top weight is set at 11st 12lbs, with the remaining runners allocated weights relative to that ceiling. Historically, horses carrying more than 11st have found it difficult to win: between 1984 and 2009, only one winner carried more than 11st. That trend has shifted in the modern era, with several winners since 2010 carrying 11st or more as the handicap has compressed at the top end.

The weight a horse carries also shifts between the announcement and race day. Horses that run well in the intervening months may rise in the handicap, and those that underperform may drop. It's worth monitoring those movements, particularly for any ante-post positions already held. What’s ante-post? We’re glad you asked. Head over to our ante-post betting guide for more information.

Course experience: Aintree asks different questions

Familiarity with the National fences matters, but not necessarily in the way you might expect. 13 of the last 15 winners were Grand National debutants, which suggests that having run in the race before is far from the advantage it might appear.

What does seem to help is experience of similar tests: horses that have won or placed in a Scottish, Irish or Welsh National bring a proven ability to handle the stamina and jumping demands the race places on them. It's not about knowing Aintree. It's about being built for it.

The 2024 safety changes moved the first fence 60 yards closer to the start and introduced a standing start, reducing the speed at which horses hit the early fences. That adjustment may gradually reduce the advantage held by experienced course performers, but the data isn't yet sufficient to call a trend shift.

Market position: what it tells you

The Grand National's market is one of the most closely watched in British racing, and for good reason: it tends to be well-informed. Favourites don't win the race with any great regularity, but horses drifting significantly in the market without an obvious explanation are worth noting.

The winner rarely emerges from the very head of the market. Short-priced favourites carry the weight of expectation into a race where chaos is a possible factor - a loose horse, a pile-up at a fence, a mistake at Becher's - and the market can overestimate their ability to navigate all of it cleanly. At the other end, horses priced deep into three figures are usually there for a reason.

There's no formula, but the race has a habit of finding its winner somewhere in the mid-market. Not the name everyone's talking about, not a 100/1 longshot, but a horse with each-way claims that the race sets up for.

Trainer and jockey records

Experience in the Grand National saddle counts. Jockeys who know the rhythm of the race - when to move, when to hold, how to position a horse through the first circuit - carry a real advantage, and the record books reflect it.

Rachael Blackmore's win aboard Minella Times in 2021 was historic as the first female jockey to win the race, but it was also a masterclass in patient riding: settled early, travelling well, produced at the right moment. The jockey record at Aintree is worth factoring in alongside the horse's form.

On the training side, certain yards have built strong Grand National records over time. Gordon Elliott and Willie Mullins have dominated the Cheltenham Festival in recent years and their runners command attention, both for their quality and for the stable confidence that tends to accompany them.

The 2024 rule changes: what's different now

The 2024 Grand National brought the most significant structural changes to the race in years. The maximum field was cut from 40 to 34, the minimum handicap rating raised from 125 to 130, and a series of fence and course modifications were introduced with horse and jockey welfare at the centre.

For bettors, the main shift is the quality of the field. With the minimum rating raised to 130 - in line with top-level Grade One races - horses on the periphery of the entry list are now effectively screened out. The 34-runner field is a stronger, more consistent group than its 40-runner predecessor, which, in theory, makes form reading more reliable, though the race’s capacity for surprise remains firmly intact.

It's also worth noting that moving the first fence 60 yards closer to the start and introducing a standing start has reduced the speed at which horses hit the early fences.

Those rule changes also mean some historical trends need treating with care. Data from before 2024 is still useful, but the race has changed. And the trends will evolve with it.

Bet on the 2026 Grand National with Bally Bet

At Bally Bet, we've been in the game since 1932. That’s long enough to have seen a few Grand National shocks along the way.

This year, we're paying out on the first six places for each-way bets on the Grand National, meaning there are more chances to see a return on race day.

Check out our helpful guide if you’re looking to build an Aintree accumulator or browse the full range of ante-post markets and our Grand National odds in our horse racing section.

Grand National trends: the summary

A quick reference for when the declarations land and the market begins to move:

• Age: eight to 10 year olds have the strongest winning record historically

• Weight: the handicap has compressed, and horses carrying 11st or more now win more regularly than historical data suggests

• Course experience: previous runs over the Grand National fences remain a useful filter

• Market position: winners rarely come from the very top or bottom of the market; the Grand National has a habit of finding its winner somewhere in the mid-range

• Field quality: the 2024 rule changes raised the floor, now the 34-runner field is stronger and more consistent

• Trainer/jockey: experience in the Grand National saddle and powerful yards matter

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All offers mentioned correct at the time of writing but may be subject to change.